The road to the Super Bowl is wide open

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Where do we even start with how weird this NFL season has been?

How about here: Kansas City missed the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, finishing a dismal 6-11 after averaging close to 13 wins while reaching seven straight AFC championship games. As for the other top-five favourites to win the Super Bowl heading into the season, Baltimore and Detroit are out, Buffalo failed to win its division for the first time in six years, and Philadelphia looked like a shell of the team that rolled to a championship last year.

Meanwhile, New England rocketed from 4-13 the last two years to 14-3 to upset the Bills for the AFC East title, the perennially disappointing Chicago Bears improved by six wins to steal the NFC North, the sleepy Carolina Panthers took the NFC South (with a sub-.500 record) and 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers led Pittsburgh to the AFC North crown.

Hold on, there’s more. The No. 1 seeds are Seattle and Denver, each led by a quarterback — Sam Darnold and Bo Nix, respectively — who has never won a playoff game. And the favourite to win the MVP award is 37-year-old Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who missed most of training camp with a bad back.

Needless to say, the road to the Super Bowl looks more wide open than it’s been in years. Here’s a quick look at the matchups for the first round of the playoffs, which kick off this weekend with six division winners hosting a wild-card team while the top-seeded Seahawks and Broncos enjoy a bye.

Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9) — Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET: All signs point to a blowout. The Rams, who are 10½-point favourites, are arguably the most complete team in the league and have the No. 1 offence, powered by Stafford and superstar receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Carolina backed in as the default winner of the shambolic NFC South and has the worst quarterback in the playoffs in tiny Bryce Young. However, the Panthers are at home and they beat L.A. 31-28 just six weeks ago.

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6) — Saturday at 8 p.m. ET: The NFL’s oldest rivals have somehow only met twice in the playoffs, so there’s a surprising dearth of memorable moments between them. This primetime clash at Soldier Field could fix that. First-year Bears head coach Ben Johnson has worked wonders with talented but erratic QB Caleb Williams, who went 5-12 as a rookie last season, but the second-seeded Bears are actually one-point underdogs against a Packers team that’s getting star QB Jordan Love and workhorse running back Josh Jacobs back from injuries.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) — Sunday at 1 p.m. ET: With Mahomes and other top AFC quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow all missing the playoffs this year, everyone keeps saying that reigning MVP Josh Allen “has no excuses” if he doesn’t reach his first Super Bowl. But the team around him simply isn’t as good this year. The Bills’ defence has fallen apart, and a glaring lack of talent at receiver puts way too much pressure on Allen and star running back James Cook, who led the league in rushing. Jacksonville did the opposite, surrounding Trevor Lawrence with quality receivers and a creative new head coach in Liam Coen to flip their record from 4-13 to 13-4 and win the AFC South. This might be the best matchup of the weekend: oddsmakers have it as essentially a pick’em, and the over/under total of 51½ points is the highest on the board.

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) — Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET: The Eagles were an absolute wrecking ball last year, smashing opponents with 2,000-yard rusher Saquon Barkley and a ferocious defence en route to destroying Kansas City in the Super Bowl. But the MVP of that game, quarterback Jalen Hurts, has looked shaky over the last couple months with star lineman Lane Johnson (the real MVP?) sidelined with a foot injury. The good news for Philly’s grumpy fans is that Johnson is back at practice and the NFC East champs are favoured by five over a Niners team that overcame a ton of injuries to grab a wild card with a terrific bounce-back season by fantasy-football MVP Christian McCaffrey. 

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3) — Sunday at 8 p.m. ET: The Patriots took an incredibly soft schedule and ran with it, going from worst to first in the AFC East for their first division title since the Belichick-Brady era. And they seem to have found another great coach-QB combo in Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, who’s a top MVP candidate in just his second year in the NFL. The Chargers are dangerous with big-armed quarterback Justin Herbert and smart head coach Jim Harbaugh, but they haven’t won a playoff game in seven years and can never seem to get out of their own way. New England is favoured by 3½. 

Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) — Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET: Say what you will about Rodgers (and we have) but he proved a lot of people wrong by bouncing back from two disastrous years with the Jets to lead his new team to a surprising division title at an age where most football players have long since hung ’em up. Retirement might seem a bit more appealing on Tuesday morning, though, after Rodgers faces a fierce Houston defence that allowed the fewest yards in the league. The Texans don’t have much firepower on offence (young QB C.J. Stroud has struggled and receiver Nico Collins is their only real star) but their D is scary enough to make them three-point favourites on the road.

In other football news:

* The Miami Dolphins fired head coach Mike McDaniel today after finishing 7-10 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. Known for his creative play designs and quirky behaviour, McDaniel went 35-33 in his four seasons with Miami and lost both his playoff games.

* The college football semifinals begin with No. 6 Ole Miss, the team head coach Lane Kiffin bailed on in late November to go to LSU, facing No. 10 Miami. On Friday night it’s No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon.