Did Canada luck out with its World Cup playoff matchup?

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After blowing their chance to retain homefield advantage and likely face an easier opponent in the World Cup knockout stage by losing 2-1 to Switzerland Wednesday in Vancouver, the Canadian men’s soccer team was gifted one of those two perks when South Africa upset South Korea 1-0 last night.

Prior to that result, Canada, currently 31st in the FIFA world rankings, was in line to meet the 28th-ranked Koreans in the round-of-32 matchup between the second-place teams from Group A and Group B on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in Los Angeles. Instead, they get the 54th-ranked South Africans.

It’s not quite the ideal scenario Canada could have earned by defeating or just tying the Swiss. That would have given the Canadians a playoff game in Vancouver (plus the opportunity to stay there for the round of 16) against a third-place team with a full week’s rest, which would have been a godsend for this banged-up squad.

But, with that possibility out the window, this is probably the best they could have hoped for. The betting markets and the Athletic’s model give Canada about a 70 per cent chance of beating South Africa on Sunday.

Still, it’s not a matchup to be taken lightly. The South Africans finished group play with four points, the same as Canada. Their scoreless draw against 48th-ranked Czechia is arguably more impressive than Canada’s 1-1 tie against No. 62 Bosnia and Herzegovina, and their 1-0 victory over South Korea came against a much tougher opponent than the 61st-ranked Qatar team that Canada beat (albeit by a massive 6-0 margin).

WATCH | Soccer North recaps Canada’s loss to Switzerland:

Canada advances to knockout round despite 2-1 loss to Switzerland

Canadians finish second in Group B at the FIFA World Cup 2026 after falling 2-1 to Switzerland in their final group game at BC Place. Soccer North hosts Anastasia Bucsis and Amy Walsh break down all the actions with Inter Toronto coach Mauro Eustáquio.

Short rest ahead

And while Canada’s only loss came to the 17th-ranked Swiss, South Africa’s was to 10th-ranked co-host Mexico, which beat them 2-0 in the tournament opener at dreaded Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

The short rest ahead of Sunday’s game could also be a detriment to Canada, which has been battered by injuries before and during the tournament. Already without starting central midfielder Ismaël Koné due to the awful broken leg he suffered against Qatar, Canada played the first half Wednesday without Stephen Eustaquio, who normally lines up next to Koné, due to a leg issue.

Eustaquio came on early in the second half when Canada fell behind 2-0, but central defender Moïse Bombito sat the entire match after playing the second half against Qatar — his only action so far.

Which brings us to the hot topic. Star captain Alphonso Davies once again did not play, despite head coach Jesse Marsch declaring him available to return from his hamstring injury while also suggesting Davies would be brought into the game if needed.

Trailing by a goal late in the second half with homefield advantage at stake, Canada certainly could have used a jolt from its best and most dynamic player. And yet Davies remained on the bench.

Marsch, who declared on Tuesday that Davies “looks great, he looks fit, he looks ready to go,” said after the game that the positive signals were only a “decoy.” He also claimed that Davies “will be ready for the next match.”

At this point, though, I think it’s fair to say we can’t believe anything Marsch says.